Index Guide to TelNotes if you are new to this blog

InfoStack Topics:

1) Horizontalization:
a) one of the developments that will free us up from the tyranny of networks is software interfaces addressing human sensory.  Visual is one (QR codes, picture recognition) and the other is audio.  I now do 80-90% of my text input on my Droid phone using voice to txt.  Now Chrome 11 has that built in.  Lack of which will likely hurt Ubuntu.
b) and 2-way video on droids is the tipping point that will break the networks open.
c) edge control of customer critical and the telcos are losing. Here’s another example. And the demand push/pull for mobile content is huge.
2) Upper Layers:
a) PayPal’s purchase of Fig provides another way of mobile wallet/payments; ubiquity.
b) markets always work around taxes; an overview of the freemium app model
c) The approach Guardly is taking is one to many and sort of many to one; at least they begin to address one of the issues of emergency alert systems; how to maintain database.
3) Middle Layers:
a) Google merging failed TV OS with Honeycomb and Android for all in one OS.
b) Lack of IPv6 impetus and tendency to default to NAT is why IP networks need settlement systems and not just bill and keep balkanized peering arrangements.
4) Lower Layers:

Market and General Interest Topics:

5) Industry Statistics and Events:
a) FCC panel on USF modernization focused on mobile wireless; not fiber.
b) Inflation? Read about The end of scarcity. 
6) Business Strategy:
a) social media tells lies? Outrageous! Well, Bezos said books would be ordered on cellphones in 1999.  Ok, so he was 9 years early.  And Irwin Jacobs at Qualcomm told me he would have a fully functioning CDMA system in H2-1991; it was H1-1994.  But the article focuses on some key issues; like symmetry of communications and patterns of communications can be used to determine who is important. That said, Conan has introduced F-cards for FB. Clever.
b) good article from Coke CMO who points to the synchronicity brought about by SM.
c) companies that cross silos and build ecosystems with competitors win.  HBR article.
d) how web services/apps shift.  Why Digg is declining and Reddit is rising.
7) Financial:
a) 2 articles on cable and media results; one focused on subs (warning signs); the other revenues (more positive).  And why broadcast TV needs to adapt.
b) Sprint’s results will continue to lag, albeit at a less alarming rate, until they develop a marketing campaign that spins the positive on their bandwidth pricing. The winning strategy about the Dime program was that it promoted 10 cents, but yielded 14 cents.
8) Other:
a) Michael Arrington’s blog about his own investments.  Quality journalism or self-serving soap-boxing?  I think the latter, but does the market care and is it amoral?  Actually it is simpler than that.  The question to ask is, “if they come across bad or negative information, will they truthfully and fairly and accurately report it?”, or “will they look to their own self-interest and sell out before, or simply not report it?”
b) very cool watching the Royal Wedding as the spectators outside are watching on their cellphones and tablets!  Take the poll.  All live events will go this way.
c) Global internet culture developing.  But I question do people actually want what they say they want?  They seem to let a lot of their wants and rights get trampled on.  And how many info streams do we need?

Index Guide to TelNotes if you are new to this blog

InfoStack Topics:

1) Horizontalization:
a) tracking Dean Bubley’s “Disruptive Wireless” blog underscores my belief in the coming horizontalization.  IP and the app world WILL change the voice model.
b) Telco 2.0 is same old telco model; they don’t see new wave coming.
2) Upper Layers:
a) good description of what the GoogleVoice-Sprint product does.  However, what does it do for S in terms of cost/capex/churn, or marketshare/ARPU increase?  Does this increase the pace of disintermediation of the carriers? I’ll let you know.
b) Om profiles what credit card cos are doing in mobile payments.  The ultimate winner will be the one that disrupts egregious and analog based transaction fee price structure.
3) Middle Layers:
a) How Yahoo ads get inserted; would this get built at a BellCo?
b) Magnet enterprise WIN social application development platform for team collaboration for CRM, HR, marketing, prod dev, recruiting, sales, training.  Their URL tagline: “Deal Collaboration Mgmt Software Sales WIN by Magnet”
c) Viewdle, facial recognition app, starts small and has users build directory of images
4) Lower Layers:
a) Ericsson’s report of strong earnings shows where carriers are spending their dollars; namely capacity to support the wave of smartphone data demand.  But is the model long-term profitable for the carriers?
b) AT&T in spat with SanFran over their wiring units for U-verse.  One thing comm monopolies have never cared about is aesthetics be they poles, towers or boxes.  It’s just the short-term thinking of American’s in general, I guess.
c) AT&T CTO says Femto cells might create more interference than gain.
d) gotta love Tom Evslin positing a WiFi overlay to all wireless digital protocols.  Another example supporting centralized hierarchical networks (CHN™).

Market and General Interest Topics:

5) Industry Statistics and Events:
a) Informative article on pricing trends in wireless for voice, messaging and data.  Price adjustments and restructurings coming due to smartphones and app ecosystems.
b) separate article detailing voice ARPU dropping faster than data ARPU and how to offset that.  Overall it underscores the question in 4.a above.  Is there ROI here?
c) chart of download speeds for T, T-mobile, S and VZW; S is best, but no one knows!
6) Business Strategy:
a) WSJ underscores potential conflicts between very large players over mobile payments.
b) Don’t see how vertical integration of Savvis/Centurylink helps either the network or the datacenters.  Deal’s value lies in growing Savvis’ datacenter footprint by 50% & increasing Century’s enterprise business to 50% of revenue; hence 10x trailing multiple.
c) Tivo (failure) vs iPod (success); a comparison.  The 3 reasons for different outcomes were: ecosystems, software interfaces, and directory value.
d) great expose on how Apple approached and handled the iPhone location issue; also insights into what they want to do with the data.  Apple, a great company.
d) Ticketmaster introducing pricing of events based on demand.  Will all commerce go this way with mobile phones?
e) I competed with YouTube in raising money for the FeedRoom in 2003, envisioning them as what YouTube did. So I’d put money on the founders figuring out how to solve our information overload problem. Here’s a history of Delicious.
f) Russ McGuire highlights Sprint’s approach to unlimited vs metered from T and VZW.  That’s great, but why doesn’t the market care?  Is it marketing?  Where’s the hook?
7) Financial:
a) Nokia cutting 7k jobs and outsourcing Symbian is the right way to go.  Company should incorporate Android and RIM/QPX if it wants to be pre-eminent handset supplier.
8) Other:
a) Leadership can be learned; it’s about how you view and communicate with others.
b) checking your email/phone every 5 minutes, or know someone?  Read this.  Amen.
c) Gagein, a tool worth checking out for social media content aggregation and discourse.

Index Guide to TelNotes if you are new to this blog

InfoStack Topics:

1) Horizontalization:
a) Brough Turner highlights paid peering arrangement between Google and France Telecom, because this is anathema to IP folks.  As well, the large telco and cable players are perfectly happy with bill and keep to transit traffic.  B&K is the opposite of calling party pays.  The former simplifies billing and makes it difficult for small guys to gain entry.  The latter is really necessary for service creation.  The world of APIs and exchanges going forward will be more of a middle of the road solution I call a "balanced payment systems" (BPS) that include performance requirements, QoS, security, etc…BPS will allow for and enable 80% subsidization of traffic by corporations via ads, vpn, applications, etc…; and they will pay for the best and most effective performance.  These APIs and software will point horizontally within a layer and vertically to layers above and below the particular component/app/process.  This is the new, IP and competitive driven IMS.  Service and infrastructure providers need to wake up to this.  And one final thought, pricing will be driven by the true marginal cost of supporting each application/user.  Monopolies run their businesses on average cost, which is why they need caps and bandwidth controls.
2) Upper Layers:
a) Googles local search includes click to call; a very popular feature from GV.  Supposedly 9 out of 10 smartphone searches result in actions.
3) Middle Layers:
a) patent dispute Google vs Bedrock on Linux worth following especially as it might impact “open standards” in the future.  My guess is it won’t stand.
b) 2600 Hertz is offering a free, open-source internet calling solution to whoever wants to integrate voice into their app/website.  Company will make money off of support.
4) Lower Layers:
a) Institute for Local Self-reliance releases report on govt funded muni networks.  Need greater coordination at regional and national level to drive backhaul pricing down 90%+.
b) FCC 706 report to indicate no additional broadband in rural markets; perhaps too soon for BTOP impact, but the latter is $7.2bn wasted impact if not coordinated.
c) RCR Wireless NJ conference made projection that wireless networks would need to handle 1,000 times more capacity than currently

Market and General Interest Topics:

5) Industry Statistics and Events:
a) WSJ article on top 10 dying industries; wireline leads the pack
b) 70% growth in the enterprise SBC market will expand communications (IP, mobility and video) significantly
6) Business Strategy:
a) follow-on to yesterday’s comments on mobile data roaming, here is some hope
b) advergaming for kids; the unhealthy downside to communications meets commerce
c) back in 1994 I questioned which Baby Bell name would remain by 2000.  I reasoned it might be Ameritech as BellSouth wouldn’t sell in Portland.  As it were US West (through Qwest) made it longest; until now.  Bye bye baby!
d) we’ll monitor the Sprint/Google voice integration to see what develops.
e) CNET review of AT&T merger filing; commentary is priceless!  T is doing us a favor!
7) Financial:
a) Fiercewireless report on 2010 R&D for top infrastructure vendors up across the board.
8) Other:
a) great advice on disconnecting in order to think and communicate better
b) WSJ article on how the smartphone will change sociology and a view of society through a lens

Index Guide to TelNotes

InfoStack Topics:
1) Horizontalization:
a) Alan Quayle’s perspective on IMS conference reinforces view that carriers don’t see the looming restructuring coming.  In their world it’s all about complexity, in the new mobile app world, it’s about simplicity and ads.
b) cloud interoperability standards from IEEE (hypervising) will lead to horizontal scale
2) Upper Layers:
a) Adam Feld, upper layer guy, take on Amazon Outage.  Doesn’t see lower layers.
b) social media applications for enterprises include goal setting:  Work Simple, CreateSmartGoals, others.
3) Middle Layers:
a) ChoozOn is a new breed of coupons and rewards portal.  An advanced version of BensBargains that cuts down on the confusion like Points.com.  SN aspect here.
b) Software to secure smartphones are control solutions to expand usage.  Good Tech.
c) growth in incubators and contests by hosting providers like Shopify only mean more competitive pressures from the top down.
d) Storify looks like a good command and control tool to organize the chaos in the upper layers of social media; only they call it curation.
e) Opengraph from FB is a tool to cut across all the social media silos.  Everyone wins.
f) this falls somewhere between middle and lower, but I like this quote from an article about new tech at Interop:  “One of the changes brought about by cloud computing, virtualization, and mobility is that there is more demand placed on the WAN than ever before.”
4) Lower Layers:
a) Tom Evslin describes AT&T vs VZW for residential wireless business.  Interesting perspective on the impact on rural markets and broadband. VZW plan outlined here.

Market and General Interest Topics:
5) Industry Statistics and Events:
a) Goldman predicts that 17% of all mobile data will come from tablet use.  What if much more machine to machine and maybe to car apps develop?  Market may be 2-3x bigger and then it is more like 6-8% same store sales.
b) global wireless forecasts from In-Stat.
c) IDC survey puts iOS and Android way ahead of any other system for developers.
d) only 50% of enterprises have video conf, and another 25% will have by 2013.  But video conf will not be wide-scale in business market until quality improves.  But Lifesize offering a bridge between enterprise systems and skype just might work.
e) 3.33m FMC units shipped in 2010 according to Frost & Sullivan.  Will growth ramp?
6) Business Strategy:
a) Chris Dixon talks about using a 2-D matrix to map taste at Hunch to infer intent, but it is much more complex than that. A learning process is established through user feedback.
b) Two good perspectives on mobile data pricing and workarounds.  Europe has been behind the US several times in the past because of “balkanization”.  Paging was an example, as was early GSM voice/messaging, which explains a lot of differences vs US. The SIM is a big reason why European consumption is so different from US.
c) further evidence of digital disruption; new TV shows being born on YouTube.
d) before Groupon were local newspapers who can’t get out of their silo mentality.
7) Financial:
a) Tom Evslin decries Wall Street’s outrage on debt ceiling cap.  Remember back to 1998-2000 when we had opportunity to pay down debt and Wall Street did its dirty deed.
b) Om documents the Skype network effect in the VC and startup landscape.
8) Other:
a) Teacher’s shouldn’t Friend Pupils?  FB pages used to screen job applicants?
b) NYT: plus side of gathering personal info is people can know more about themselves.
c) it will be interesting to see if Groups makes FB less viral.
d) Interesting quote from this article on OpenFlow Technology: “The Internet infrastructure was not designed for continued evolution," said Guru Parulkar, executive director of the Clean Slate Internet design program and consulting professor of electrical engineering at Stanford University.
e) the typewriter died in India.
f) smartphone apps using cameras and microphones?  Very very very eery.

If you are new to TelNotes click on an Index Guide to TelNotes

InfoStack Topics:

1) Horizontalization:
a) Conferences like GlueCon and the ecosystems around them will be the weight that brings pressure to bear for horizontal restructuring of service providers.  Rather than glue, we prefer oil, as there should be less, not more friction, and greater flexibility.  A lot of the solutions featured here belong in the Middle Layers.
2) Upper Layers:
a) Here’s a silo response to LBS couponing services from Visa/Gap. (additional insight)  Cross retailer solutions: Groupon, LivingSocial, FourSquare, Shopkick, ScoutMob, Rewardli, BiteHunter, and GoMobo/OLO;  from list of 40+ & growing that I have.
b) More important Groupon’s announcement of e-coupons for General Mills’ products.
c) Keep in mind, EBAY/PayPal just bought Where, a local mobile payments company; some perspective from PayPal, which I happen to agree with 100%, but not much detail.  Always ask the question, “why do people want this?”
3) Middle Layers:
a) insurance driven telematics is an example of location solutions that make economic sense.
b) O’Reilly article on Mashape, a market for APIs.  Network effect for software dev.  Similarly there are moves afoot to create markets for data by Factual and others.
c) Article on content liberation & sharing; “Copying content is not problem, compensation is”.  Need for payment system for “orbital” content; ads travel too.
4) Lower Layers:
a) pole attachment cost issues will grow, particularly with fiber backhaul and distributed wireless networks (RANs).  Big cost is labor.  Market needs to find alternatives.

Market and General Interest Topics:

5) Industry Statistics and Events:
a) FTTH passes 21m homes in US, with 7.1m users.  Article discusses BTOP effect; still believe greater coordination and “singular” national pricing plans for backhaul are key.
b) 60% of VZW’s phone sales in Q1 were smartphones.
6) Business Strategy:
a) RIM Tablet supporting multiple app environments would make it winner in the enterprise space; but it won’t be available till H2 and will competition already respond?
b) MSFT/Nokia collaboration expanded on in this article.  Seems to be 2 losing strategies and sub-optimal set of products joined together.
c) great article on SocialMedia legs; “substitution of information for subscriptions”, or monetization of information.  I call it tying the commercial event to the communications event.  It’s centralized payment.  Just as NYT is trying to role out subscriptions; early stats are debatable.
7) Financial:
a) DCM raises $100m fund for just android apps and ecosystem companies.
8) Other:
a great discourse on the “me button” being the evolution beyond social media, which is “a new form of passive peer pressure or groupthink.”  From Trapit CEO.
b) what is the optimal size of social networks and how is tech affecting relationships? 

If you are new to TelNotes click on an Index Guide to TelNotes

 

InfoStack Topics:

1) Horizontalization:
2) Upper Layers:
a) Om Malik points out basics for apps: KISS and less friction. Avoid the bandwidth trap.
b) US Army chooses Android.  Watch a lot of other enterprises & institutions following, as Horowitz predicted.
3) Middle Layers:
a) command and control will involve location logs, from which many apps will work.  D Pogue of NYT justifies Apples iPhone location log.  Can’t say I agree with his logic. Another analysis here makes me wonder if a large segment of the population will just stop using certain types of phones at certain times.  Like EZPass.  Ever wonder why SO many people don’t have it and sit in the cash line; and it’s not just money.  Here’s a survey no privacy concerns.
b) before everyone shifts to the cloud, it’s not just bandwidth and 7x24 access concerns, but backup, security concerns and single points of failure, as evidenced by Amazon Cloud Service outage.  Here’s a blow by blow account.
c) scanners used by police exist to pull all info off smartphones.  Need for better ways to secure and control one’s info.
d) HD video delivery solution Zixi uses unorthodox approach for efficient bandwidth use.
4) Lower Layers:
a) Fred Wilson blog on music.  Comments regarding bandwidth (coverage, gaps, availability) and desire for higher def audio.  Bandwidth big issue for cloud.
b) Genachowski at Economic Club reiterates need to freed up spectrum.  Smartphones use 25x and tablets 145x bandwidth than conventional cellphones.

Market and General Interest Topics:

5) Industry Statistics and Events:
a) comscore video viewing and ad stats for March.  174m users avg 15 hours/month.
b) Tablet usage stats:  no “office” products to create.  Just consumption & response uses.
6) Business Strategy:
a) Instant.fm is simplicity itself; searching and combining videos with pre-existing playbook.  Example of how individuals can outthink companies with silo mentalities.
b) C Dixon blog on AppleTV; what if video VOD/streaming (& 2-way) becomes common on smartphones; then the play-list and controls make it very easy to transition to wired broadband and make the set-top box obsolete. No?  Same holds for iOS & Droid.
c) FB “like” button is 1 year old.  10,000 sites add it each day; now at 2.5m sites.
7) Financial:
a) if the wireless world is going great guns, why is sprint trading below junk status?
8) Other:
a) if you are bookish, have a smartphone kindle app or a tablet, read this overview on where books are going.  New distribution always brings new opportunity.

TelNotes Daily:  April 21, 2011

If you are new to Telnotes click on Index Guide to TelNotes

InfoStack Topics:
1) Horizontalization:
a) GMU Professor Greenstein gives lecture on Myth of the Internet.  His emphasis is on how little govt involvement there was in the development of the internet and yet he misses the mark as to how the internet (commercial Web 1.0) began with distributed router networks based on flat-rate local pricing.  This layer 1-2 foundation (1986-89) was a direct out growth of the anti-competitive response of monopolies to the WAN threat.  The low-cost long-distance made the carriage of enormous amounts of data to these routers nearly free.  Then came layer 3 (www), layers 4 and 5 http and html and then the browser in layer 6 by 1994.  Since storage was cheap and transport was paid for, the cost of content distribution and viewing was relatively free.  Until people buy into this view, that the internet was built on a price/distance arbitrage, they won’t really understand the coming horizontalization from a pricing, cost, and structural perspective.
2) Upper Layers:
a) the “interest graph” is becoming key next step in social commerce; built on taste (opinion), location and trust.  The latter is the key word for every app.
b) wow, in one day you see numerous articles on enterprises, military and spook agencies all adopting social.   In the new world consumers adopt first followed by institutions.
c) same day articles on iPhone keeping track of locations and social location dating service.  It’s all a little too invasive, wouldn’t you say?  Can’t we go back to the days of Bob Lucky of Bellabs putting a video camera on his dog so he could IP from anywhere and see what the dog was doing?
d) article on do’s and don’ts of app dev; differences in iOS and Android; from Urban Airship.
3) Middle Layers:
a) Federal Telework security policy helps develop the institutional category for mobility.  Developments/ adoption in this area are critical for wide scale mobile-app/cloud growth.
b) Innobell offers convergence app for voice and datasharing on smartphone.  They also game and do money transfer.
c) Google offers improved site analytics and youtube analytic tools.  Good on!  Imagine a carrier offering this?!?  Wakeup Telcos (I mean bellheads!).
d) rebirth of TV ads?  Anti-dvr tool? People can now tag ads watched using smartphones.
4) Lower Layers:
a) Rural broadband could be the tail that wags the bandwidth dog if approached properly.  Obama set things in motion with $7.2bn BTOP and now rural providers are requesting the FCC consider phased changes to $7.5bn USF.  But that might be a double edged sword if broadband monies go to cable companies and satellite cos.  Note, some Republican states actually are trying to reverse BTOP.  But isn’t there something wrong with USF and how rural subsidies occur when 35% of adults in 10 states use only wireless.
b) Gotta love Comcast coming in dead last of 143 companies surveyed on customer loyalty.  Go monopoly!
c) Article on public-private partnerships to close digital divide.

Market and General Interest Topics:
5) Industry Statistics and Events:
a) Enterprises are alive and well based on earnings results from IBM and Intel.  This is good news because they will be big buyers of connected smartphones and tablets.  That will result in demand for security software and indoor distributed antenna systems.
b) Nieelie Kroes, Europe’s Info Policy czar is sticking with status quo in net neutrality space.
6) Business Strategy:
a) AT&T’s bet on a hybrid broadband solution is paying off relative to VZ’s bet on FTTH.  The market doesn’t seem to care as both are up about 18-20% over both 2 and 5 year ranges; VZ has the better wireless asset.  Since 1984, the S&P is up 800%, T is up 500% and VZ 320%.
b) Accenture says tech firms should have 4-5 biz strategies.  Amen.
c) Intel coming late to smartphone party means even big guys miss big trends.  But not anymore.  
7) Financial:
a) Wharton report on VC valuations and funding points to consolidation amongst VCs, which could be another way for the market to bridge the public/IPO inefficiency.
8) Other:
a) A Smithsonian article on how Memes play a vital and viral role in our overconnected society, especially with FaceBook and Twitter.  Separately, Davidow suggests potential changes in human physiology.  Seriously, we’ve got to wonder where our culture is headed with socialmedia.
b) growing taxonomy for electric cars as google/DOE build infrastructure map.
c) and here twitter romantic relationships last shorter!  What does this mean for biz relationships?

TelNotes, They're Back!

When I wrote them last I organized TelNotes along an investor oriented index (buy/hold/sell, long-term/short-term, etc...).  This time I am organizing TelNotes along a strategic framework into 8 specific topics.  The posts will be 1-4 sentences with links to the source and other posts related to the same thread.

The 8 topics are broken into 2 sections: 4 for the Informational Stack (aka the InfoStack), and 3 for overall market and finance trends and 1 for general interest.  The first 4 will tend towards supply issues and the latter towards demand drivers.

InfoStack Topics (supply):
1) Horizontalization:  the trend away from vertical integration towards scalable horizontal end to end intranets and ecosystems.  Broader trends and industry events will be highlighted that do not fit cleanly into the below 3 categories.
2) Upper Layers:  topics and specific company events supporting the formation of application ecosystems.  In the future individuals will sit on their own unique demand curve of many intersecting applications.  Individuals are not limited to a specific number of simultaneous IP transactions.  Add to that machines and there is literally an infinite world of demand. 
3) Middle Layers: focus on the controls and cross network transiting of traffic.  Think of the complexity of chaotic convergence intersecting with diverging demand.  And then think of a world of infinite demand.  Think of most of the traffic being subsidized by corporate spending and advertising.  These layers ties the communication event to the commercial transaction a la 800 service.
4) Lower Layers: focus on the transport of traffic; typically referred to as the network and access layers.  Key focus will be on competitive trends in technology and cost/bit.  We find right now in this area the greatest bottlenecks to growth in the information, and hence overall, economy.

Market and General Interest (demand):
5) Industry Statistics and Events: highlight, compare and contrast trends and events across the Infomedia landscape.
6) Business Strategy: focus on winning and losing strategies for companies and industries.
7) Financial: valuation and topics surrounding capital availability/constraints.
8) Other: general interest topics (social, political, cultural, technological, etc....) that are relevant to the prior 7 topics.